Analysis of CO2 Emission Performance and Abatement Potential for Municipal Industrial Sectors in Jiangsu, China

As the main source of CO2 emissions in China, the industrial sector has faced pressure for reducing emissions. To achieve the target of 50% reduction of industrial carbon intensity by 2020 based on the 2005 level, it is urgent to formulate specific CO2 emission mitigation strategies in the provincial industrial sector. In order to provide decision-making support for the development and implementation of mitigation policy, our undesirable slack based measure (SBM) model is firstly applied to evaluate the industrial CO2 emission efficiency under total-factor frame (TFICEE) in 13 prefecture-level cities of Jiangsu Province, the largest CO2 emitter in China. Then, we analyze space-time distribution and distributional evolution tendency of TFICEE by using the GIS visualization method and kernel density estimation, respectively. Finally, we utilize the industrial abatement model to estimate the CO2 abatement potential of Jiangsu’s industrial sector. The empirical results show that there exists a significant spatial inequality of TFICEE across various regions in Jiangsu, but the regional disparity has been narrowing during our study period. Additionally, average annual industrial CO2 emission reductions in Jiangsu Province can attain 15,654.00 (ten thousand tons), accounting for 28.2% of its average annual actual emissions, which can be achieved by improving production technology, adjusting industrial structure and raising the level of industry concentration.